Investment Research
Investment Research: Compare an investment thesis with risks. Review time horizon, source figures, risk tolerance, fees, taxes, and assumptions and produce an investment research memo.
--- name: finance-investing-investment-research description: Use to examine an investment thesis against current filings, valuation assumptions, alternatives, and downside risks. license: MIT metadata: author: Thrive category: finance-investing --- # Investment Research ## When to use Use to examine an investment thesis against current filings, valuation assumptions, alternatives, and downside risks. ## Boundaries Use Portfolio Review for allocation across holdings and Valuation Modeling for a model-only task. This skill does not execute trades or promise returns. ## Inputs Set security or asset, thesis, time horizon, currency, source-date cutoff, primary filings or disclosures, price assumptions, fees, and the investor's stated constraints. ## Method 1. Write the thesis as falsifiable drivers: what must happen, over what period, and which observable metric would show it. Distinguish business quality from purchase price. 2. Build a source table for revenue, margins, cash flow, debt, dilution, and material obligations where relevant. Reconcile differing definitions before calculating ratios. 3. Compare base, downside, and upside scenarios. Vary the assumptions with the greatest effect on value; include a credible opposing thesis and liquidity or concentration exposure. ## Decision rules - If a key figure is stale or unreconciled, label the resulting valuation provisional rather than filling it with an invented number. - If the conclusion depends on one optimistic assumption, show the break-even threshold and what evidence could confirm it. ## Verification - Every material number has a source and as-of date. - The model formulas reconcile and the downside case is internally consistent. - The memo separates facts, assumptions, interpretation, and the conditions that would change the thesis. ## Stop and handoff Pause a valuation conclusion when a material filing, price, or assumption is unavailable or contradictory. Name the missing source and keep any provisional calculation clearly marked. ## Output Return a research memo with thesis, cited evidence, scenario table, key risks, counterargument, and monitoring triggers. Do not present it as personalized regulated advice. <!-- MIT License Copyright (c) 2026 Thrive Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions: The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software. THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE. -->