Valuation Modeling
When to use
Use this skill for valuation modeling when you need to estimate value under multiple assumptions. The expected result is a valuation model with sensitivities.
Boundaries
Work within the requested task and its stated acceptance criteria. Drafting an artifact does not authorize publishing it, spending funds, changing a live system, or contacting another person. Identify any such action separately before taking it.
Inputs
Inspect time horizon, source figures, risk tolerance, fees, taxes, and assumptions. Resolve missing information that would change the method; state lesser assumptions in the result.
Method
- Diagnose. Set time horizon, currency, liquidity, source data date, fees, tax assumptions, and risk constraints.
- Decide. Compare scenarios and downside exposure before a recommendation.
- Produce. Build a valuation model with sensitivities from the inspected material; keep assumptions distinguishable from observed facts.
Decision rules
- Compare a base case with downside and alternative opportunity; challenge concentration and optimistic growth assumptions.
- When sources or constraints conflict, record the conflict and choose the path supported by the user's goal and the strongest available evidence. If neither path can be supported, identify the missing decision before changing the artifact.
Domain rules
- Distinguish education and research from personalized regulated advice.
- Show uncertainty, concentration risk, and liquidity constraints.
Verification
Audit formulas and terminal assumptions. Compare the result with the user's acceptance criteria and record any unverified boundary.
Return a reproducible model or research memo with scenarios, source dates, and limitations.
Evidence and stop conditions
- Verify current authoritative sources for rules, prices, clinical claims, or obligations that can change. Distinguish fact, interpretation, and assumption.
- Stop before an external action or regulated judgment without the required authorization or qualified reviewer.
- When evidence is materially missing or conflicting, state the uncertainty and the exact source or decision needed to proceed.
Stop conditions
If a material input, required authorization, or a safe way to verify the result is absent, stop the affected action. Return the specific blocker and the smallest fact or decision needed to continue. Do not report an unrun check as passed.
Output
Provide a valuation model with sensitivities. Include the decisive evidence and actual verification result. Name any artifact location and unresolved issue that affects its use.