Investment Research

Investment Research

When to use

Use to examine an investment thesis against current filings, valuation assumptions, alternatives, and downside risks.

Boundaries

Use Portfolio Review for allocation across holdings and Valuation Modeling for a model-only task. This skill does not execute trades or promise returns.

Inputs

Set security or asset, thesis, time horizon, currency, source-date cutoff, primary filings or disclosures, price assumptions, fees, and the investor's stated constraints.

Method

1. Write the thesis as falsifiable drivers: what must happen, over what period, and which observable metric would show it. Distinguish business quality from purchase price.
2. Build a source table for revenue, margins, cash flow, debt, dilution, and material obligations where relevant. Reconcile differing definitions before calculating ratios.
3. Compare base, downside, and upside scenarios. Vary the assumptions with the greatest effect on value; include a credible opposing thesis and liquidity or concentration exposure.

Decision rules

• If a key figure is stale or unreconciled, label the resulting valuation provisional rather than filling it with an invented number.
• If the conclusion depends on one optimistic assumption, show the break-even threshold and what evidence could confirm it.

Verification

• Every material number has a source and as-of date.
• The model formulas reconcile and the downside case is internally consistent.
• The memo separates facts, assumptions, interpretation, and the conditions that would change the thesis.

Stop and handoff

Pause a valuation conclusion when a material filing, price, or assumption is unavailable or contradictory. Name the missing source and keep any provisional calculation clearly marked.

Output

Return a research memo with thesis, cited evidence, scenario table, key risks, counterargument, and monitoring triggers. Do not present it as personalized regulated advice.